How Certain Are You That Your Idea Will Win?
All optimization work starts with you and your degree of certainty about particular ideas. This opens up the door for immediate implementation of ideas when we are truly certain (and accepts that not everything has to be tested). Here is an emerging certainty scale we are beginning to use on projects.
The Optimization Certainty Scale
We are starting to use this scale to help us prioritize ideas, as well help to make implementation decisions. Half of the scale is reserved for an initial subjective expression, and the other half requires quality tests to be used to back up a higher certainty claim. The highest certainty mark I'll ever make may be a 9, which requires three strong supporting winning test, and 1 losing test. This is so, because I believe that even more certainty can be extracted from avoiding something that a relevant losing test uncovered. And why avoid a 10? Because such high certainty closes too many doors. :)
How Do You View Your Own Certainty?
Please share your own thoughts.